Ayyub, Bilal M.

Professor
Director, Center for Technology and Systems Management

Civil and Environmental Engineering
Center for Risk and Reliability
Maryland Robotics Center
The Institute for Systems Research

1168 Glenn L. Martin Hall

ba@umd.edu

301-405-1956

View CV

Website(s):
Center for Technology and Systems Management
Books: Amazon Profile
Google Scholar
ORCID

Virtual Office Hours (Fall and Spring Semesters)

Tue 11:00 to 12:00 pm or (other times Wed 11:00 to 12:00 pm) (email ba@umd.edu to set up time to talk by phone or connect by zoom or other virtual means)

EDUCATION

Ph.D., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1983

Measurement science for resilience and sustainability
Design and adaptation to a changing climate
Civilian and defense infrastructure resilience, risk and reliability
Global catastrophic risks
Autonomous systems and control
Big data and offset technology prediction

Dr. Ayyub’s main research interests and work are in risk, resilience, sustainability, uncertainty and decision analysis, applied to civil, infrastructure, energy including renewables, defense and maritime fields and climate-resilient infrastructure. Professor Ayyub is a distinguished member of ASCE and an honorary member of ASME. He is also a fellow of the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers (SNAME), the Structural Engineering Institute (SEI), and the Society for Risk Analysis (2017-18 Treasurer), and a senior member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). Dr. Ayyub completed research and development projects for governmental and private entities including NSF, DOD, DOT, NIST, DHS, and leading insurance and multinational corporations worldwide. Dr. Ayyub is the recipient of several awards, most recently the 2018 ASCE Alfredo Ang Award on risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure, 2019 ASCE President Medal for many efforts to bring adaptive design to the profession to help address a changing climate, 2019 ASCE Le Val Lund Award for contributions to resilience enhancement and risk reduction for lifeline-networked systems through measurement science and associated economics toward informing policy and decision-making practices, 2018 ENR Newsmaker award for passionate effort to give engineers their first formal guidance when designing infrastructure to be more resilient to weather extremes, and 2016 ASNE Solberg Award significant engineering research and development accomplishments in the field of ship survivability.

Ocean Energy Safety Institute

Principal Investigator(s)

Ayyub, Bilal M.

Sponsor

TX A&M TEES: DOE, DOI, Industry

Resilience of Railroad Networks

Principal Investigator(s)

Ayyub, Bilal M.

Sponsor

FRA

Climate-Resilient Infrastructure

Principal Investigator(s)

Ayyub, Bilal M.

Sponsors

ASCE and NOAA

Reliability-Based Design of Piping for Nuclear Power Plants

Principal Investigator(s)

Ayyub, Bilal M.

Sponsors

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

U.S. Department of Energy

American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)

Load and resistance factor design (LRFD) reliability-based design methods for piping were developed for nuclear facilities. This multi-year effort resulted in a draft code case being considered by the ASME Codes and Standards Committees. LRFD design methods are available in several papers of the ASME Journal of Pressure Vessel and Piping.

Reliability-Based Design of Ship Structure

Principal Investigator(s)

Ayyub, Bilal M.

Sponsors

U.S. Navy

Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland

The development of reliability-based design criteria for surface ship structures needs to consider the following three components: (1) loads, (2) structural strength, and (3) methods of reliability analysis. A methodology for reliability-based design of ship structures was developed and implemented. The methodology consists of the following two approaches: (1) direct reliability-based design, and (2) load and resistance factor design (LRFD) rules. Reliability-based design rules were developed at several levels of structural systems that include the hull-girder, grillage, panel, plate and detail levels. This multi-year effort contributed towards the development of the American Bureau of Shipping Rules for the U. S. Navy. Fatigue design in these rules are based on products from this research effort that first appeared in the special issue of the American Society of Naval Engineers Naval Engineers Journal.

Reliability-Based Optimal Design of Steel Box Structures

Principal Investigator(s)

Ayyub, Bilal M.

Sponsors

U.S. Navy

Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland

A steel box structural design has been traditionally used for bridges and surface marine vessels and is on the basis of engineering experience/judgment and deterministic approaches, such as working stress design. Recent developments in reliability-based design have lead to the development and application of the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) approach, in which inherent uncertainties are accounted for in an indirect manner. Structural optimization algorithms and tools have also seen an increased application in the area of structural design in the context of weight reduction, cost savings, and other design improvements. A three-step strategy for the design of such structures was developed, which combines the innovative aspects of both reliability-based methods and structural optimization theories and algorithms. After selecting an initial design as a starting point, the methodology then improves on this through deterministic optimization, in which design variables, objectives, and constraints are defined in a purely deterministic manner. Concerns regarding major components, selected configurations and layouts, loading, and design objectives/constraints can be addressed at this point and the process can be repeated if necessary. This deterministically predicted optimal design is then used as the basis for reliability-based optimization, which is the final step of the methodology, in which design variables, objectives, and constraints are defined in a probabilistic context. Through its ability to account for uncertainties, a reliability-based framework greatly complements any deterministic prediction. The methodology has been applied to the design of two typical surface vessels as examples: one simple and one complex.

Structural Life Expectancy of Marine Vessels: Ultimate Strength, Corrosion, Fatigue, Fracture, and Systems

Principal Investigator(s)

Ayyub, Bilal M.

Sponsors

U.S. Coast Guard

This research track resulted in a methodology for the structural reliability analysis of marine vessels based on failure modes of their hull girders, stiffened panels including buckling, fatigue, and fracture and corresponding life predictions at the component and system levels. Factors affecting structural integrity such as operational environment and structural response entail uncertainties requiring the use of probabilistic methods to estimate reliabilities associated with various alternatives being considered for design, maintenance, and repair. Variability of corrosion experienced on marine vessels is a specific example of factors affecting structural integrity requiring probabilistic methods. The structural life assessment of ship hulls methodology developed produces time-dependent reliability functions for hull girders, stiffened panels, fatigue details, and fracture at the component and system levels. The methodology was implemented as a web-enabled, cloud-computing-based tool with a database for managing vessels analyzed with associated stations, components, details, and results, and users. Innovative numerical and simulation methods were developed for reliability predictions with the use of conditional expectation. Examples are provided to illustrate the computations.

Please see https://ctsm.umd.edu/

Professor Ayyub is the author and co-author of more than 650 publications in journals, conference proceedings, and reports and the editor-in-chief of the ASCE-ASME Journal on Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems in its two parts on civil and mechanical engineering. In addition to 15 edited books, his eight textbooks include the following: Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis for Engineers and Scientists (Chapman & Hall/CRC 2006 with G. Klir), Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics (Chapman & Hall/CRC 2003, 2014), Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks (CRC Press 2002), Probability, Statistics and Reliability for Engineers and Scientists, Third Edition (Chapman & Hall/CRC 2011 with R. H. McCuen), and Numerical Methods for Engineers (Prentice Hall 1996 with McCuen, 2nd edition Chapman & Hall/CRC 2016).

Please see

https://ctsm.umd.edu/publications-ayyub/

Ayyub Research Featured in Washington Post, Other Venues

Study shows big impacts of potential super-storm surge on Washington, D.C.

Fellow of SRA, SEI, SNAME

Honorary Member

Distinguished Member

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Ayyub, Bilal M.

Virtual Office Hours (Fall and Spring Semesters)

EDUCATION

Ocean Energy Safety InstitutePrincipal Investigator(s)

Resilience of Railroad NetworksPrincipal Investigator(s)

Climate-Resilient InfrastructurePrincipal Investigator(s)

Reliability-Based Design of Piping for Nuclear Power Plants

Reliability-Based Design of Ship Structure

Reliability-Based Optimal Design of Steel Box Structures

Structural Life Expectancy of Marine Vessels: Ultimate Strength, Corrosion, Fatigue, Fracture, and Systems

Ayyub Research Featured in Washington Post, Other Venues

Ocean Energy Safety Institute

Principal Investigator(s)

Resilience of Railroad Networks

Principal Investigator(s)

Climate-Resilient Infrastructure

Principal Investigator(s)